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September 25, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. EST
Good morning and Happy Friday. Yesterday, with the trade truce extended to January and markets awaiting the Trump-Xi meeting, news that Oracle was using force majeure to protect itself from data center build delays triggered a new round of concerns about AI financing. The S&P was down until later in the day when reports came out that the US and Iran were discussing a phased deal to reopen the SOH. The index bounced around after that and ended around flat, but the equal-weight fell 0.5% and Russell 2000 was off 0.1%. The S&P’s performance may have been a relative win given the volatile action in treasuries and oil ending higher. The yield curve steepened overall. The long end rose another ~10bp while the 2y rose ~3bp.
Equity futures are looking to end the week on a high note as we are in the green and near best levels. The US is mulling a confirmed Iranian proposal to reopen SOH and restart negotiations. However it looks like the US is looking for a new, more comprehensive agreement, rather than a rehash of the MOU, and Gulf states are reportedly pressing to keep the pressure on Iran. Beyond the extended trade truce between China and the US, and a couple new pandas coming to the US, there wasn’t much incremental form the Trump-Xi meeting, though not much was expected. The political sphere noted Xi’s more aggressive language around Taiwan along with his more Mao-ist attire at last night’s dinner.
Treasury yields are lower across the curve as the 2y falls 5bp and 10/30y down ~2bp. Durable Goods orders were better than expected, continuing their strong trend. Crude was lower overnight with Brent down ~2% currently. Shipments through the Strait reached the highest daily volume since July. Restrictions on US diesel exports continue to be discussed by the US administration, according the reports (the administration rebuffed reports yesterday around this). Precious metals are higher. Ag is lower, with no significant deals coming from the Trump-Xi summit. Bitcoin is flat while Eth is up modesty, though secondary/alt-coins are continuing to outperform.
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