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May 1, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. EST
Iran-related news continued to swing this way and that, but two much different topics were able to capture more attention from investors this week: the Fed meeting and mega cap tech earnings. The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected and the overall tone moved more Hawkish. Tech earnings saw numbers continuing to explode off the screen but stock reactions were mixed. For the week, the S&P was up 1%. Equities powered through another move higher in oil and a backup in yields.
There was a flattening of the curve as global yields moved higher along with oil prices and amidst some modestly hawkish central expectations. The USD pulled back modestly this week with much of the action happening in the Yen as Operation Intervention was unleashed.
Oil and gasoline prices moved up early in the week before starting to pullback in the back half. Prices have completely reversed the ceasefire pullback and are starting to push to fresh highs. ICE Brent futures rolled to July this week. Natural gas prices bounced modestly this week but were down just under 10% in both the US/Europe during April. the metals complex was mostly lower for the week. Precious metals have largely remained in a consolidation pattern over the last few months since the sharp downside reversal in February.
Looking ahead, you can start off the weekend with some Mint Juleps while watching the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby and taking notes on Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Shareholder meeting. Earnings will continue to roll out. The April jobs report will headline the economic data, with ISM Services and the Treasury's quarterly refunding report also important events. The Senate could vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination. Go Knicks and have a great weekend.
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