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December 30, 2025 at 9:20 a.m. EST
Good morning. Yesterday the S&P 500 made a move to 6920 right after the open but momentum quickly disappeared and the index retreated. It spent the rest of the day in a tight ~20 point trading range, finishing down 0.4%. The equal-weight slightly outperformed but also closed lower while the Russell 2000 lagged a bit. Energy and defensive/yield plays- Utilities, Staples and Real Estate- were the strongest sectors yesterday and the only ones positive. So far the Santa Claus rally is stuck on the North Pole runway, as the S&P is flat since December 23 and the engines haven’t been revved today either. S&P futures are flat this morning in another quiet pre-market. The latest FOMC minutes will be the highlight of the day on the macroeconomic calendar, while President Trump continued to voice his displeasure with outgoing Fed Chair Powell, threatening to bring a lawsuit against him (again) and call him names (incompetent). Not sure how Powell feels about it, but the market is taking all of it in stride.
Treasury yields are flat to slightly higher across the curve and the US Dollar Index is slightly higher as well. Global yields are also mostly higher this morning. Crude is adding a bit to yesterday’s gains and metals are rebounding sharply from yesterday’s pronounced declines. Traders should be watching multiple geopolitical fronts: Venezuela (US oil blockade and Maduro regime stability), the latest Ukraine developments (drone attack on Putin’s residence) and Iran (Trump mentioning possible military strikes). Crypto is moving higher with Bitcoin and Ethereum up 1-2%.
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