Coming out of the weekend where the ceasefire looked to be on shaky ground and there was uncertainty as to whether the next round of negotiations would take even take place, oil prices moved higher and futures opened modestly lower. However, the pullback was quite shallow especially in the context of the recent historic rally. Markets were mixed by the end of the day. The equal weight S&P 500 and small/mid cap indices closed up between 0.3% - 0.6% while the market cap weighted S&P 500 fell 0.2%. The NYSE 100 broke its winning streak at 13 sessions pulling back slightly after a 20% rally (the Denver Nuggets 13-game winning streak also came to an end last night).

The Iran negotiation uncertainty remains but futures have been pointing to a higher open throughout the morning. It is busy morning of earnings, economic data and an appearance by President Trump on CNBC. President Trump said he doesn’t want to extend the ceasefire and that the military is ready to go. He also said that the captured Iranian ship had “gifts from China. I thought I had an understanding with Xi”. Futures did pull back modestly from the highs during his interview while oil prices have moved back towards unchanged after pulling back overnight. As that interview started retail sales came in well ahead of estimates along with positive revisions which has pushed yields at the front end up a couple of bps.

Broadly speaking the earnings results look pretty solid. The consistent theme especially within industrial companies is that despite Q1 beats guidance is being left unchanged with management teams calling out caution given the current geopolitical uncertainty. In tech, Apple is trading a touch lower after officially announcing that CEO Tim Cook would be succeeded by John Ternus, this has been telegraphed in the press for a while now. Amazon is up >2% after agreeing to invest up to $25B in Anthropic who in turn committed to spending >$100B on AWS technology over the next 10yrs. President Trump also said he met with the company and a deal could be made related to the supply-chain risk designation.