Good morning and Happy Fed Day. A quiet session yesterday saw equities end lower with both the S&P 500 down 0.6%, equal-weight down 0.3% and Russell down 0.9%. The Dow bucked the trend, rising 0.6%. A move lower in both rates (2-5bp) and oil (-4%) didn’t provide much lift for equities overall and semis sold off, putting pressure on the headline index. S&P futures are modestly higher this morning but off their highs as we await new Fed Chair Warsh’s first FOMC presser, and the MAC Desk Watch Party, at 2:30pm.

This morning’s retail sales came in ahead of expectations of expectations pretty much across the board. Treasury yields are hovering around unchanged and the US Dollar Index is modestly higher. After dropping for several days, Brent crude is seeing modest gains, bouncing off its lows this morning and back to testing $80. Last night’s API crude report had inventories falling by 8.3M, a little less than last week’s 9.1M draw and almost doubling the 4.5M estimate. The EIA’s data comes out later this morning. Gold and silver were slightly lower but have gotten back to unchanged, consolidating gains from last week. Bitcoin and ETH are down about 1-2%,

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged this afternoon and the Statement is expected to evolve in a more hawkish direction removing the easing bias. The Summary of Economic Projections will also be updated with the biggest question whether Fed Chair Warsh submits his projections given his preference for less communication.