US equities rallied on Friday but ended the week down 0.8%. The index tested its 50d ma and the lower end of the recent range ~7,600. The equal-weight and small/mid cap indices ended the week down ~2%. Oil was up ~10% for the second consecutive week as the US and Iran continued to exchange fire, the situation in the Red Sea deteriorated and Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline. Market-implied odds of a rate hike stand at roughly 90%. Expectations that the Giants and Jets would both win yesterday and start the season 1-0 were likely much less. It was the first time both won their opening week games since 2009.

With NY football fans pumped/shocked, equity futures were decidedly less enthusiastic, under pressure as oil prices resumed their climb after news that today’s expected meeting in Oman between Gulf states and Iran was postponed. Adding to the oil-generated headwinds for equities was a direct hit on the AI ecosystem. Over the weekend Anthropic’s CEO published an essay calling for the slowdown of AI model development to better understand security risks involved.

AI capex-exposed stocks are under pressure. The DRAM ETF and ICE Semis index are down ~5% today. The S&P was down ~0.8% at its lows just after the open. However, the index once again found support as it traded down to its 50d ma (7600). That was also around the time some positive news on the Ukraine war came out. The S&P rallied off that level and is currently down ~0.3%. The equal-weight is about flat. Small caps are down modestly. Brent crude took another run to $110- the 3rd straight day- on the back of the Oman meeting postponement, but was once again unable to hold the level. It's currently back near intraday lows ~$105, up ~1%. The commodity was already pulling back when President Trump said Ukraine and Russia agreed to not hit each other's energy targets.