Good morning,. Equities shot higher on Monday following news of a US-Iran peace deal as well as proof you can win an NBA championship with a small guard as your #1. Not surprisingly details of the deal remain murky as we await the full text of the agreement. There’s skepticism both within the US government and amongst allies, especially Israel. The key question for markets of when flows through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal remains to answered. Regardless, the S&P added 1.7%. Large cap tech drove the gains (NYSE 100 +3.5%) as the equal-weight lagged (+0.5%) and the Russell 2000 added 0.7%.

Ahead of tomorrow’s Fed rate decision- and the debut of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair- S&P futures have traded in a tight range overnight and on either side of unchanged. Treasury yields are lower this morning following oil, with some curve flattening. There’s a 20Y auction at 1pm. The US Dollar Index is around unchanged. Housing Starts of 1.177M fell 15% from last month and were below estimates, reaching levels not seen since 2020. Building permits fell slightly as well.

Crude continues to fall with Brent down another 4% and trading below $80. Qatar is expected to ramp-up LNG production rapidly after the Strait reopens according to reports. Metals are higher while Ag is trading lower. After sharp gains yesterday Bitcoin and Ether are seeing more modest gains today, with Bitcoin trading just under $67K.