Good morning and Happy One Year Anniversary of Liberation Day! Yes, it’s been one year since President Trump’s Rose Garden event where he unveiled his giant tariff (not tarot) cards displaying nosebleed rates on nations around the world. We’ve come so far! With all the chaos, and war and partisanship and fill-in-the-blank-pocolypses we’ve been writing about, it was an awesome moment yesterday watching with my family as Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen fired up the giant, earth shaking SLS rocket and began their journey to fly around the moon, returning for the first time in over 50 years. Felt great to be just as excited as my kids, and it was a hell of a way for NASA to kickstart the next chapter of space exploration. We’re here for all of it.

Back to the markets. Yesterday US equities started Q2 by extending Tuesday’s rally on more hope of an approaching the exit ramp in Iran. However, the totality of comments and headlines throughout the day once again produced more of a mixed message, cutting into the best gains earlier in the day. Quick, important side note- markets are closed tomorrow but the monthly jobs report will be published, so we could see elevated volatility as investors figure out how much risk they want to hold over a long weekend.

President Trump addressed the nation last night and largely kept to earlier comments. The lack of a defined exit strategy or timeline, along with the lingering questions about the Strait of Hormuz was what markets took away, however, and they responded to that as expected overnight. Brent crude jumped and S&P futures fell. Global yields are backing up, including Treasuries up 2-3bp. The USD Dollar Index is moving back up to ~100.

Brent crude (+8%) jumped from $100 to $105 last night, and extended higher throughout the early morning. Precious metals are selling off, similar to the beginning of the war as yields move higher. Gold is trying to hold its 100d ma ~$4640. Crypto is selling off as well, with Bitcoin down 3% and Ether -6%, trying to hold $2k.