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July 25, 2025 at 5:45 p.m. EST
Last week, strength in the mega-cap tech stocks helped the S&P 500 notch a new all-time high with options expiration keeping the index pinned to the 6,300 strike. With the removal of that volatility suppressing flow, equities resumed along the path of least resistance to start the week. The focus this week was T&,E- Trade and Earnings. In general, the news flow on both topics was reasonably positive helping equity markets continue to grind to the upside. The S&P 500 closed higher for the third consecutive week at a new all-time high. With the August 1st trade deadline quickly approaching some deals have started to come together most notably, Japan. Reporting suggests that a trade deal with the EU at a 15% rate is close, though President Trump said it was 50:50 at this point. The yield curve flattened with 2yrs up ~5bps while the long end was down a similar amount. This was a mix of resilient economic data, the pullback in the long-end in Japan and the perceived easing of pressure on Fed Chair Powell all helped to reverse some of last week’s move. The pace of releases has kicked into high gear. Broadly earnings have been pretty solid with companies continuing to execute in a difficult operating environment. There was also a brief return of the meme-craze with traders targeting stocks with high short interest ratios. Next week is gonna be non-stop, like Hulkamania riding the Crazy Train. FOMC decision, GDP, PCE, ISM, monthly jobs report among many other data points to parse, all while we hit the peak week for earnings.
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