ICE to become distributor of Polymarket data to institutional investors globally
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October 7, 2025 at 9:00 a.m. EST
Good morning. S&P futures are at their highs of the day and gaining momentum as we approach the Open. Tech names are trading higher before the Bell. Dell is holding an Analyst Meeting this morning, raising its guidance and up ~6% in the pre-market. AMD is following up on its substantial move yesterday. Treasury yields are flat and the US Dollar Index is back above 98. The AI trade is alive and well and may have just evolved a new dynamic. Tech stocks drove the action with AMD the standout after ripping 24% following news of its partnership with OpenAI. Nvidia fell on the news but it was a modest reaction to a key competitor rocketing higher on big news with a fellow partner. Oil rose, which helped pushed Energy stocks higher. Real Estate, Staples, Healthcare and Financials were lower. There was a big regional bank deal with Fifth Third buying Comerica for $10B. Treasury yields were up a few bp across the curve. The government shutdown continues but we’ll get several Fed speakers that will have a lot less to talk about with the delayed data piling up. Fed data continues to come out however, with Consumer Expectations and Consumer Credit later today. The September Logistics Manager’s Index fell to 57.4, from 59.3 in August, for the lowest reading since March. Transportation Utilization was flat (50), the first time the subindex registered this low in September, a generally a busy season in the freight market. That dovetails with the lack of hiring in the last week’s Challenger Job report, when seasonal hiring should be ramping up for the holidays. This morning ICE announced a strategic investment of up to $2 billion in prediction market platform Polymarket, at a pre-investment valuation of $8bn. ICE will become a distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data and the companies have agreed to partner on future tokenization initiatives. ICE is up ~4% in the pre-market. Tesla is expected to unveil a new, more affordable Model Y this morning. After previously saying truck import tariffs were on their way, President Trump announced yesterday that all medium- and heavy-duty truck imports will face 25% tariffs starting November 1.
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