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March 20, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. EST
Last week as the Iran conflict escalated US markets closed lower for the fourth consecutive week. The S&P 500 ended the week down ~2% breaking below its 200d ma for the first time since reclaiming it last May after the tariff reversal. Friday was a record volume day with >5B shares and ~$317B of notional value trading during the session. Global yields moved sharply higher during the week amidst a deluge of central bank rate decisions and as markets quickly repriced the risk of energy induced inflation.
This morning is the 6yr anniversary of the Covid low. I happen to distinctly remember the date as it happens to be my mom’s b-day - Happy Birthday Mom. It was also the first day the floor shutdown and the Fed announcement that morning organically sparked the first edition of the NYSE MAC Desk Morning Thoughts. It was a Monday morning following a triple witch expiration with futures trading sharply lower before the Fed announcement caused a sharp reversal marking the bottom of the fastest and shortest bear market in history. President Trump seems to have an affinity for history and is doing his best Chair Powell impersonation this morning causing a sharp reversal of his own. Déjà vu?
It was a rough overnight session after President Trump threatened to destroy energy infrastructure in Iran if the Strait wasn’t re-opened over the weekend. However, shortly after 7:00 am this morning he posted that, “OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST” and postponed the 48-hour deadline to the end of the week. S&P futures snapped back trading up >250pts from the low. Prices backed off as sources from Iran denied that there have been any negotiations. However, futures have firmed up again after Axios reporter Barak Ravid posted that Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan have held talks with the White House envoy and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi according to sources. The S&P 500 is currently trading up just under 2% just over the 200d ma. Oil prices also reversed sharply from the overnight high currently down ~10% trading ~$101 (ICE Brent range 96 - 114.43). The VIX is down ~10% hovering just over 24.
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