Yesterday the S&P 500 closed right on 6800, just above its 20d ma. That was down 0.2% but off the day’s lows after a late session rally led by Tech. The equal-weight lagged, down 0.6%. The latest employment data was messy as expected and disjointed due to the government shutdown. Overall, there was increase in private sector jobs, weakness in government jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate as the participation rate rose. Yields fell several bps across the curve while crude continued to slide.

This morning S&P futures were trading modestly higher after the NY Knicks hit the jackpot in Vegas and defeated the San Antonio Spurs to win the in-season NBA Cup. Hopefully it’s a preview of much bigger wins in June. Futures momentarily came off their best levels after reports of uncertainty around Oracle’s planned $10B Michigan data center, as funding talks with Blue Owl stumble. This came on the heels of comments from Senator Bernie Sanders yesterday in support of a moratorium on AI data center construction.

The index opened around flat but support at the 20d ma ~6790 failed to hold up, taking the index to a test of the 50d, which is also in danger of failing as the index slips below it. We’re currently down almost 1%, though once again the weakness is concentrated in the largest companies and the growth factor (i.e. Tech). The equal-weight index is only fractionally lower and small caps are outperforming in general. The Energy sector has gone from Worst to First today as crude and natural gas bounce off their recent selloffs and geopolitical events push the commodities higher today. Brent crude is trying to regain $60 as it rises on geopolitical news. Precious metals are seeing broad gains, especially outside of gold with silver ripping again. Crypto is lower with Bitcoin trying to hold above $86K.