Good morning and Happy Friday. In about an hour and half it’ll be Spring, according to the universe’s official measurement and not the groundhog. The equinox coincides with today’s big triple-witching, with an estimated $5.7 trillion in notional options expiring. The stars are aligning, as they say.

Yesterday equities were under pressure for most of the day as the Iran conflict escalated to include attacks on major energy assets in Iran, Qatar and other Middle East nations. Short term rates spiked globally following a deluge of central bank meetings, further pressuring stocks. Late in the day Israeli PM Netanyahu said that Iran no longer has the ability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles- flagging a potential off-ramp or de-escalation- and that Israel will not target energy infrastructure going forward. The S&P, down 0.8% at the time, shot into positive territory briefly before pulling back to finish down 0.3%. Energy was the leading sector while Financials and Tech finished flat. Materials, Discretionary and Staples lagged. 2-year yields finished well off their highs, up 2bp after being as high as ~20bp.

Equity futures are down as we approach the open but off their lows, which occurred after Axios reported that the US was considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Secretary Wright said a few hours later that the US may remove sanctions on Iranian oil on tankers at sea, confirming earlier comments from the administration, in a bid to ease oil prices. Fed governors Bowman and Waller are speaking before the open as the blackout window ends and Fed Speak can be unleased following an eventful Fed meeting.

Treasury yields are on the move again, with the 2yr up 8bp and 30yr up 4. UK 2yr yields are up another 15bp. The Dollar is stronger on the major crosses. Brent crude is trading lower, stepping back from highs around $111 earlier in the morning. modestly higher this morning. Gas is also lower. Gold and silver are seeing slight bounces after a rough week for precious metals. Bitcoin and Ether are around flat with BTC trying to hold $70k, and ag is flat as well.