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July 31, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. EST
The Tech Wreck was still in effect to start the week but other areas continued to hold up. The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Tuesday. All this despite stocks like former trillion dollar market cap Micron down 40% from its highs. Wednesday brought the big market event we were waiting for- the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. With rates rocketing higher, the S&P turned sharply lower in the final hour of trade, falling 130pts from the day’s high and ending down 1.5% as semiconductor and memory chip stocks got clocked again, though they weren’t alone.
With the the Fed meeting done and dusted, the PCE data and initial 2Q GDP were supposed to be the closing highlights of the week, outside of earnings. But that was before we had A Situation. CNBC and others began reporting that hedge fund Situational Awareness was liquidating its public stock holdings due to substantial losses over the past month. The fund rose to fame due to its concentrated bets on AI. The situation acted like a clearing event and tech stocks that had been under considerable pressure rebounded sharply. With all the crazy moves, the S&P is up 1% this week and the equal-weight is up as well. Small caps lagged but were flat to slightly higher. The Dow Transports was big under-performer on some negative earnings moves. The S&P gains pushed it back above the 50d ma and just below 7500- it was there before fading a little at the close.
Earnings will continue at a brisk pace and include Caterpillar, McDonalds, Lilly, Disney, AMD, and SpaceX’s first earnings as a public company. The labor market will be under the spotlight with Monthly payrolls on Friday. ISM Manufacturing and Services will also be important reports. And speaking of Jersey Mike’s I'll be heading to the Jersey Shore for a little vacation. If I see the real Situation I am definitely showing him this note. You’ll be in good hands with the other famous Jersey Mike, my colleague Michael Reinking. Enjoy your weekend.
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