Good morning. US equites stumbled into the weekend on Friday. The S&P fell 0.3% as did the equal-weight, but the Russell 2000 got hit for 1.4%. Yields played a role as the 2y jumped over 10bp and the long-end rose as well after markets digested Fed chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech. That speech assumed the role of Steve Martin in the Three Amigos market events last week (PCE as Chevy Chase and NVDA earnings as Martin Short being the others). Rate hike expectations repriced and now stand at 64% for the September meeting, versus 40% a week ago.

Today is the last day of August, and we’ve seen some significant market events and sharp moves during recent month-ends- most recently the Situational Awareness fund blowing up at the end of July. We don’t’ see anything on the tape like that this time around but we still have a full day of trading to go. Maybe that’s not entirely true as the US and Iran exchanged fire over the weekend, the first time since July. The US struck rocket launchers on Larak Island, which could be used to fire mines into the Strait. Iran then launched missiles at US bases in Jordan which were intercepted. President Trump also posted AI-generated videos of Kharg Island being “blown to smithereens”. S&P futures are down ~0.4% as oil climbs ~3%. The S&P is currently up 3% in August with the equal-weight up a little less and small caps lagging.

Yields are backing up on the long-end by 3-4bp. The US Dollar index is down however, giving back some of Friday’s gain. Oil is trading higher this morning on the renewed Iranian hostilities. The WSJ reported details of the US’ oil deal with Venezuela. The US will take a 35% passive stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, a private energy company and second-largest oil producer in the country. Rights to purchase 20% of its production would come with the investment. Not surprisingly, the article noted a significant degree of confusion across the oil industry and Venezuela. Gold is lower and has fallen below its 200d ma ~$4500, though its up 10% this month. Silver is lower as well, trying to regain its 100d ma ~$68.70 (+17% in August). It has traded below its 200d since mid-June. Bitcoin and ETH are up about 1% and continue to consolidate their recent sharp moves higher- Bitcoin +25% in August and ETH +32%.